Uncertainty over Kenya’s repeat presidential elections greatly affected business and trade in September 2017. Kenya was the month’s leading net importer (25,718MT) of grains, a huge reduction from August 2017 (41,432MT). Kenya’s export in September 2017 were (2,272MT), slightly down from August 2017 (2,331MT). Wheat was Kenya’s only grain export in the region. Kenya’s leading grain imports were beans (13,925MT), millet (8,507.MT), sorghum (2,370MT), and sunflower seed cake (1,682MT).
In September 2017, Uganda was the leading net exporter (21,223MT) of grains a huge decrease from August 2017 (47,574MT). The country imported (11,603MT) an increase from August 2017 (9,201MT). Uganda’s leading exports beans, millet, sorghum and maize mostly exports to Kenya. Uganda fed Kenya in September 2017.
Tanzania was the 2nd net exporter of grains in September 2017 (13,205MT), up from August 2017 (11,774MT). The country imported (46MT), down from August 2017 (1,212MT). The country’s leading exports were rice, sorghum, groundnuts, and sunflower seed cake.
In September 2017, Rwanda was a net importer of grains having exported (8,760MT) up from August 2017 (3,792MT) and imported (12,083MT) up from August 2017 (8,879MT). Rwanda’s leading imports were maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat, while the country’s leading exports were beans, rice, wheat and maize mostly exports to DRC.
Commodity Prices for the last Week of September 2017
So! What is the October 2017 Outlook for Kenya?
October marks the beginning of the planting season, therefore the prices of food is expected to increase as most people will be selling their stored food items to buy certified seeds and inputs for the planting season. Being a rainy season transportation cost are expected to also increase causing additional increase in the price of food. The Government of Kenya maize subsidy program was expected to have concluded, however the Kenyan market continues to have GoK90 in plenty of supply in the market which is greatly affecting the price of maize in the Kenya. As most traders and miller continue to shy away from Non GoK90 maize meal varieties. Seeing that Kenya is still in an election period, the maize subsidy program is not about to end, as maize is a highly political crop in Kenya.
Exchange Rate used US$1=Ksh103.55/-
Written by Fostina Mani, Betta Grains. Fostina.Mani@bettagrains.com, Twitter: @FostinaMani, www.bettagrains.com
Acknowledgment: The data used for the analysis has been obtained from; IAM, Government of Kenya, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries, Government of Tanzania, Ministry of Trade and Industry, EAGC, RATIN, Farm Gain Uganda, FEWS NET, & Betta Grains.
Disclaimer. Due to unavailable of data on various border points on formal cross-border trade flows and volumes in the public arena. The volumes indicated above are mostly from the informal cross-border data that is available to the public. The purpose of the analysis, is simply to provide an indication of the East Africa Regional Trade flow to SMEs, Smallholder Farmers, and Other Stakeholders in a manner and language that is applicable, simple, and makes sense. Those desiring to obtain actual trade volumes are advised to contact various internationally funded projects and government ministries that have been mandated to provide the regional trade data for public good.