East Africa Regional Grain Trade Analysis for the Week Ending 16th June 2017

Beans (6,338MT) was the highest traded commodity in the week ending 16th June 2017.  The trade flow was mostly from Uganda to Kenya, a sharp decrease in comparison to the previous week (16,052MT). Uganda exported to Kenya (5,634MT), and to DRC (528MT).  Other trade flows included Rwanda’s export to Uganda (156MT); Tanzania’s exports to Uganda (10MT), and to Kenya (9MT).  Beans prices were highest in South Sudan, Juba Ksh165($1.59)/kg, Kenya, Mombasa Ksh100($0.97)/kg and Machakos Ksh90($0.87)/kg.  The prices were lowest in Rwanda, Mulindi, Ksh47($0.47)/kg, and Kimironko Ksh48($0.46)/kg.   Yellow Beans (40MT) was traded down from the previous weeks (220MT).  The trade flow was from Uganda to Rwanda (40MT).  Yellow beans prices were highest in Kenya, Nairobi Ksh100($0.97)/kg, Eldoret Ksh90($0.87)/kg, and Tanzania, Dar Ksh97($0.94)/kg.  The prices were lowest in Rwanda, Mulindi Ksh52($0.5)/kg, and Uganda, Tororo Ksh57($0.55)/kg. Yellow beans fetch the highest prices in the market, because it’s a tasty variety, and does not give gas.  Red Beans (85MT) trade was down from (95MT) the previous week. Tanzania exported to Uganda (85MT). Red beans prices were highest in Tanzania, Dar Ksh93($0.9)/kg, Kenya, Nairobi Ksh88($0.85)/kg, and Burundi, Bujumbura Ksh72($0.7)/kg. The prices were lowest in Burundi, Ngozi Ksh42($0.41)/kg and Gitenga Ksh45($0.43)/kg.  Mixed Beans (111MT) was exported from Rwanda to Uganda.  Mixed beans prices were highest in Kenya, Nairobi, Ksh88($0.85)/kg, and Tanzania, Dar Ksh79($0.76)/kg.  The prices were lowest in Burundi, Ngozi Ksh42($0.41)/kg, Rwanda, Kamemba Ksh43($0.42)/kg, and Uganda, Busia Ksh44($0.42)/kg.  Rwanda is producing a lot of mixed beans, which unfortunately fetches the lowest prices in the market, however the county should be commended for not only producing enough beans to export, but also to enable its citizen to buy beans at lower prices, in comparison to what Kenyans are paying for the same mixed beans, as mixed beans eventually end in up in the Kenyan market via Uganda.  Rwanda’s crop intensification program is clearly a success in the country’s grain sector.

 Maize (6,280MT) was the 2nd highest traded commodity in the week.  The flow was mostly from Uganda to Kenya, however a slight decrease in comparison to the previous week (8,130MT). The Uganda exports consisted of exports to Kenya (4,423MT), to Rwanda (220MT), and Tanzania (60MT).  Tanzania also exported maize (1,218MT) a slight increase from the previous week (1,176MT).  Tanzania exported to Kenya (420MT), a quiet unusual pattern in comparison to the previous two months. The huge increase in trade was a result of Kenya importing maize from other countries in the Southern region via the Namanga, Tanzania.  There are reports of decreasing maize volumes within the East Africa region, Kenya is therefore looking at Zambia and other Southern Africa markets where there are reports of availability of maize. Tanzania also exported to Uganda (390MT), and in another very unusual export to DRC (408MT) through the Tunduma border, probably maize on transit from Southern Africa region into DRC.  Maize prices were highest in South Sudan, Juba Ksh85($0.82)/kg, Burundi, Bujumbura Ksh75($0.72)/kg, and Ngozi, Ksh72($0.7)/kg.  The lowest prices were in Tanzania, Mbeya Ksh21($0.2)/kg, and Iringa Ksh28($0.27)/kg, unfortunately there are unconfirmed reports of Tanzania restricting exportation of food into Kenya.  Kenya reported the following wholesale prices Kisumu, Ksh60($0.58)/kg, Nairobi, Ksh52($0.5)/kg, Nakuru Ksh50($0.48)/kg and Eldoret Ksh45($0.43)/kg.  Busia market, the main supplier of Nairobi’s maize reported Ksh32($0.31)/kg.

Rice (1,142MT) was traded, a slight decrease from the previous week’s (2,522MT).  The flow was from Tanzania to Rwanda (620MT), and to Uganda (157MT). Rwanda exported to DRC (360MT), and Kenya exported (5MT) to Tanzania.  Rice prices were highest in Kenya, Mombasa Ksh180($1.74)/kg, Eldoret Ksh148($1.43)/kg, and lowest in Tanzania, Iringa Ksh74($0.71)/kg. Nairobi wholesale price for imported rice are Parboil Rice Grade 1 Ksh150($1.45)/kg, Grade 2 Ksh140($1.35)/kg, Imported Long Grain rice Ksh98($0.95)/kg, Thai Rice Ksh98($0.95)/kg and 5 Star Ksh90($0.87)/kg.  Betta Grains is currently selling Kenya Pishori Ksh195($1.88)/kg wholesale.

Sorghum (567MT) was traded, a huge decrease from the previous week (823MT).  The trade flow was mostly Uganda exports to Kenya (518MT).  Tanzania exported to Uganda (40MT), and to Kenya (9MT).  Sorghum prices were highest in Kenya, Nairobi Ksh85($0.82)/kg, Kisumu Ksh60($0.58)/kg and Nakuru Ksh65($0.63)/kg, and lowest in Uganda, Gulu Ksh32($0.31)/kg, and Lira Ksh34($0.33)/kg. Kenya continues to experience a huge shortage of Sorghum, the available of pure red Sorghum has become unheard of in Nairobi, and the very limited commodity that is a mixture of every Sorghum variety (Photo1).

Wheat (552MT) was traded during the week, a huge decrease from the previous week (917MT).  The trade flow was from Kenya to Rwanda (271MT), and from Rwanda to DRC(281MT).  Wheat prices were highest in Burundi, Ngozi Ksh102($0.98)/kg, Gitega Ksh96($0.93)/kg, and lowest in Kenya, Nairobi Ksh45($0.43)/kg, Mombasa Ksh45($0.43)/kg, and Nakuru Ksh50($0.48)/kg.  The prices signals importation of wheat in the Kenyan market through Mombasa port.

Groundnuts/Peanuts (309MT) was traded in the week, in comparison to the previous week (958MT).  The trade flow was mostly Tanzania’s exports to Uganda (132MT), and to Kenya (135MT).  Rwanda exported to DRC (1.88MT).  The prices of groundnuts were highest in Uganda, Masindi Ksh167($1.61)/kg, Kenya, Eldoret Ksh146($1.41)/kg, Nairobi Ksh145($1.40)/kg, and lowest in Tanzania, Mbeya Ksh79($0.76)/kg.

Millet (262MT) was traded, an increase from the previous week (246MT).  The flow was mostly Uganda exports to Kenya (262MT).  Millet prices were highest in South Sudan, Juba Ksh140($1.35)/kg, Rwanda, Kimironko Ksh105($1.01)/kg, Kenya, Eldoret Ksh105($1.01)/kg, and Mombasa Ksh100($0.97)/kg.  Nairobi continues to experience a huge shortage of Millet.  Nairobi wholesale price is Ksh88($0.85)/kg, Betta Grains is currently selling Millet at Ksh98($0.95)/kg. Soya Beans (214MT) was traded, Tanzania exported to Kenya (151MT), and to Uganda (60MT).  Prices were highest in Kenya, Eldoret Ksh105($1.01)/kg, and lowest in Uganda, Busia Ksh41($.40)/kg.  Peas (166MT) was traded, Tanzania exported to Uganda (75MT), and Uganda exported to Rwanda (91MT).  Peas prices were highest in Burundi, Bujumbura Ksh162($1.56)/kg, and lowest in Uganda Mbale, Ksh57($0.55)/kg.  Sunflower Seed Cake (136MT), Sunflower Seed Meal (900MT), Rice Bran (30MT) and Maize Bran (42MT) was exported from Tanzania to Kenya.

Exchange Rate used US$1=Ksh103.65/-

Author; Fostina Mani, Betta Grains. Fostina.Mani@bettagrains.com, Twitter: @FostinaMani.

Acknowledgment:  The data used for the analysis has been obtained from; IAM, Government of Kenya, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries, Government of Tanzania, Ministry of Trade and Industry, EAGC, RATIN, Farm Gain Uganda, FEWS NET,  & Betta Grains. 

Disclaimer. Due to unavailable of data on various border points on formal cross-border trade flows and volumes in the public arena.  The volumes indicated above are mostly from the informal cross-border data that is available to the public.  The purpose of the analysis, is simply to provide an indication of the East Africa Regional Trade flow to SMEs, Smallholder Farmers, and Other Stakeholders in a manner and language that is applicable, simple, and makes sense. Those desiring to obtain actual trade volumes are advised to contact various internationally funded government projects that have been mandated to provide the regional trade data for public good.